2008 Election Talk

[maggiethecat]

Aug 14, 2008 15:40:18 GMT -5 mlm828 said:

Another downside to giving Hillary the Vice-Presidential nomination is that it might make Obama appear desperate -- that is, it might look as if he feels he can't win on his own and needs her to win. That would not be a good thing.

That is an excellent point, one I don't think I've heard mentioned before. People in his position generally do anything to win -- the trick is to make it not look that way. An Obama/Clinton pairing would smack of desperation.

Hypothetical scenario: If the primaries were held again today, how many wins do you suppose Hillary would have after all that's come out about how poorly her campaign was run and after Bill's increasingly uncomfortable presence? I can't decide if her campaign ran out of gas, it imploded, or if Obama was able to get his message out to more and more people when the American people already knew what she had to say. Or maybe D, all of the above.

[shmeep]

It's hard to say what would have happened had people known all the Hillary stuff they know now. Really, we did know or could guess quite a lot of it. I remember saying (probably in this thread) quite some time ago that her campaign was obviously not being run well and that Obama's was and that was part of what I was basing my pro-Obama sentiments on. But reading about the specifics was pretty horrifying with all that info compiled into one place and all her staff backstabbing each other, all eager to get their side out there.

Yeah, she (and Bill) would be tough for the Obama campaign to swallow as a running mate and I'm sure that would only happen if they were, in fact, desperate. And it would look desperate. Yeah, you guys are right. It's extremely unlikely to happen unless Obama has a really good reason for it (and I know he doesn't want to).

What do you all think about Hillary getting her delegates counted on the floor of the convention? I've heard it's been agreed upon by Obama and that she is using it as "catharsis" for her supporters (very self indulgent, if you ask me) and that she will ultimately use it as a way of uniting the party around Obama and will cast her own superdelegate vote for him but...something smells.

And speaking of wacky running mates of yore (we were, weren't we, Mags?)...anyone remember that old guy who ran with Ross Perot in 1992? He was a military man named...Stockard? Stockwood? The word "stock" seems to be in there somewhere. All I know is that he had one normal eye and one that wandered off every which way and that the debate between he, Dan Quayle, and Al Gore was tremendously entertaining. That was the first presidential election in which I could vote (I just missed the '88) and I was really into all the debates and everything leading up to it. I had a party on election night with several friends and we all cheered loudly for each state Clinton won while my poor Republican mother's pots and pans seemed to get increasingly loud as she banged around in the kitchen. That was a very exciting election.


Modified to add:

Aha! I did post it in this thread a while back. Here's what I said about the way Hillary was running her campaign:

Feb 22, 2008 16:10:01 GMT -5 shmeep said:

Here’s something I’ve been thinking about the last few days—and last night I heard someone on MSNBC say the same thing when I was half asleep so I know I’m not the only one who feels this way. I’m looking for signs of good leadership and preparedness by looking at the campaigns of both parties to see who is doing a better job on that front. There’s no comparison when you look at it in that way. Hillary’s campaign is in turmoil. People are being replaced and there are several factions who have conflicting opinions on what to do next. It’s also struggling financially. The reason? No one had a plan for campaigning beyond Super Tuesday. They thought it would be all over by then so there’s been mass confusion since then. That seems short sighted. Obama’s campaign, on the other hand, is incredibly well organized. He has an amazing organization on the ground in many states simultaneously and he continues to bring in huge amounts of money. If someone struggles to run their own campaign, they may struggle to run the country. Just a thought.

[mlm828]

What I call the "Big Lie" strategy is back, according to this disturbing article. No surprise, of course. I only hope Obama fights it more effectively than Kerry did.

[inuvik]

Sightly off topic, slightly on:

I was wondering--how is Swing Vote doing in the US? It's bombing here. I was all set to see it this weekend, I thought it looked fantastic. But after only one or two weeks, it is only in the late showings! (And I live in a big city, lots of screens). I just can't stay up that late for it, so I have to miss it. It didn't even come to smaller places.

Is it bombing in the States? If so, do you think it's due to election fatigue? I would have thought the opposite--it was released now and should do well because politics is in the air.

[bump]

On a humorous note pertaining to this year's election, these were featured on our local news tonight.

www.flopyourvote.com/

Now, should you wear the political candidate whom you back, or the one that you accuse of flip-flopping? The people interviewed didn't know either.

[maggiethecat]

Wicked publishing deadlines be damned . . . I'll see you all here tomorrow in this thread after we know who will be Obama's running mate.

Hillary? Naaah, don't think so.

Biden? Hope so. ;D

Bet it's gonna be someone we don't know that much about. It always is.

[mlm828]

The "talking heads" seem to think Biden will get the nod. My main reservation about him is his tendency to experience periodic episodes of "foot in mouth disease."

One of my colleagues on my legal list serve posted the following comment about Biden, which I found quite interesting:

Whether he is, or he isn't the VP pick, I empathized with Joe Biden today and related to him when CNN announced that by all government records he is "the poorest" United States Senator, #100 at the very bottom of the list, with a negative net worth of minus $300,000. The only Senator with just one home, who takes the train home to Wilmington every night and returns to D.C. the next morning, every day the Senate is in session. He also has taught Saturday morning law school classes at a small Delaware law school for 17 years, for almost no compensation. No fame, no glory, just teaching. And the Dean of the law school says he shows up every Saturday for his students. He might miss tomorrow.

Here's someone else who's hoping it's Biden.

[housemouse]

It's Biden!

As a long time fan of Joe Biden, I like the pick. I just hope they have some quick responses prepared for when Fox News starts calling him a plagiarizer, racist, and super-ultra-liberal. I have faith in the Obama machine, so just KNOW they have thought about these things and are ready to face them.

[shmeep]

Aug 23, 2008 7:18:00 GMT -5 housemouse said:

I just hope they have some quick responses prepared for when Fox News starts calling him a plagiarizer, racist, and super-ultra-liberal.

Some woman from McCain's campaign somehow managed to work all of that into one sentence today, ending with an obnoxious smiling, "It should be a lot of fun to watch" kind of phrase. I was disgusted, but not too worried. McCain likes and respects Biden and if the worst he can come up with about the pick is the negative things Biden said about Obama early on (and none of that too bad, really--judging by that first McCain ad after the announcement), then I know Biden will be able to hold his own just fine. The great thing is that he's known to be a gaffer, but his misstatements are nothing when compared with McCain's. And...if McCain picks Romney, Obama will have all sorts of footage of all the horrible things McCain and Romney said about each other during the primaries.

I listened to Biden's speech today and was so proud of Obama for picking him. Then I listened to an interview from 2006 in which he was asked all about his early years and the death of his first wife and daughter and...he's such a very wonderful man. So sincere and so bonded with his family.

And anyone who can describe Guiliani as only being able to construct sentences using "a noun, a verb, and 9/11" is okay with me. To have some genuine wit injected into this campaign will be so refreshing! I love it.

[maggiethecat]

Aug 23, 2008 17:14:05 GMT -5 shmeep said:

Anyone who can describe Guiliani as only being able to construct sentences using "a noun, a verb, and 9/11" is okay with me. To have some genuine wit injected into this campaign will be so refreshing! I love it.

Cracks me up every time they show that clip. A politician with a genuine sense of humor? Them's thin on the ground.

I think it a brave choice, considering Biden brings to the table only what, two? three electoral votes?

Cannot wait for Michelle Obama tonight. If you've never heard her speak, y'all are in for a treat. The Woodrow Wilson scenario in which the President lies incapacitated and the wife takes over would bother me not one whit. The woman is amazing.

Too bad they don't have "Potential First Ladies" debates. Ms. O would wipe the floor with that little Barbara Eden twinkie McCain's married to. ;D

Plus she spends no money on her clothes and looks great . . . my kind of woman.

[mlm828]

I don't know about anyone else, but I'm getting concerned that the Dems have been taking classes from the "John Kerry School of How to Lose a Winnable Election." I ran across this very interesting article on 10 ways Obama should not imitate the Kerry campaign. These are very good suggestions, but I haven't seen a lot of evidence that anyone is following them.

Last night's convention session was kind of ho-hum, in my opinion. Michelle Obama did a good job, and I suppose it was necessary to try to get the message out that Barack is not so different from the rest of us. But I hate that they have let the other side define Obama.

I only hope the gloves come off tonight, and we get some no-holds-barred talk about why the country can't afford four more years of McBush.

[matilda]

I thought Michelle Obama was fantastic.

In terms of the capacity of the other side to define campaigns for us, I thought they'd done it again here until the night of the count itself, and we won as you know. So don't get down about them and their brilliant election strategies - surely they must backfire eventually?

And ... I've just got off the plane tonight after four days in New Zealand - election fever there too and guess what?? The other side is off and running. I'm beginning to think there is just one Conservative's campaign instruction manual and they just circulate it around the English-speaking nations.

Matilda (can't resist a great election discussion)

[shmeep]

Aug 26, 2008 17:51:10 GMT -5 mlm828 said:

I ran across this very interesting article on 10 ways Obama should not imitate the Kerry campaign.

Thanks for the article! This was my favorite part:

2. If you get attacked, don't attack back. If you absolutely have to respond, start with a weak rejoinder, preferably one without any hint of masculinity, like "If that were the case, I would find it very disappointing."

;D

And Matilda! It's so great to have your input.

Aug 27, 2008 7:50:24 GMT -5 matilda said:

I thought Michelle Obama was fantastic.

Me too. She's a fabulous speaker and you can just see what a lovely family she comes from. Her brother is appealing and her mother is so sweet and adorable it almost breaks my heart. I loved the way she narrated Michelle's tribute video. I was already a Michelle Obama fan, but that speech just reaffirmed everything I already thought about her. She's as gifted a speaker as her husband and has his passion and intelligence and warmth. I would be proud to have her as First Lady. And those girls! How cute are they? I loved the little one asking Obama where he was so he could correctly say "Kansas City" when he had just mistakenly said "St. Louis." I've heard pundits saying those girls will get votes every time they're shown and I don't doubt it.

I was also very impressed with Hillary's speech. I heard so much speculation about how much of her heart would be in it and even more about how, even if she does her job, it's in her own best interest because she knows she'll be blamed if Obama loses, etc. Well, all that seems trite after hearing the speech itself. It made me realize anew that we really did have two great candidates this time around. I'm not sorry she lost, but I have to admire the woman. I hope Bill comes through for Barack tonight. I suspect he will. He's too good a Democrat not to.

I heard something odd yesterday. I heard that all the network feeds of the convention are pooled and that FOX is the one doing the filming. The conspiracy theory I heard on Air America is that, during Michelle's speech, they kept showing white people looking bored or disgusted and black woman wiping their eyes. I noticed that at the time. Well, from what I've heard, this was a blatant bias on the part of the FOX people because what they were showing did not represent the overall vibe of the convention and seemed to pinpoint the demographics in such a way as to make it appear that only black people were moved by Michelle (which was untrue, by all accounts) and that the white people were not behind her. If this is true, it's horrible and needs to be exposed. I didn't notice it last night during Hillary's speech, but it would have been hard for Fox to have found anyone who wasn't jumping up and down for Hillary.

Aug 27, 2008 7:50:24 GMT -5 matilda said:

In terms of the capacity of the other side to define campaigns for us, I thought they'd done it again here until the night of the count itself, and we won as you know. So don't get down about them and their brilliant election strategies - surely they must backfire eventually?

One can only hope. I've been hearing that McCain's habit of using his POW experience as a way to rebuff any personal criticism against him is sure to backfire soon because he's trivializing the most poignant part of his story by using it as a shield. People won't take that for long. He used that on Leno the other night when talk of how many houses he has came up. He said something like, "Well, when I was in a POW camp for five-and-a-half years, I didn't have a house..." Blah blah blah. What a ridiculous thing to say in response to a completely unrelated point. The house issue is not to mock his wealth. It's to show how out of touch he is with the majority of the American people and I think Obama is starting to do a fairly good job showing this.

Mlm, I don't think he's as bad as Kerry. I see a few of those tendencies, but I really think he's doing a better job defending himself and that he'll get stronger. A lot of Dems are disappointed the convention hasn't been very strong on the Attack, but I understand where they're going. The first night was about honoring Kennedy and about redefining Michelle--or just properly introducing her. It's difficult to stick attack zingers between such things. And yesterday was about Party Unity and trying to get all those insane PUMA's out there to finally see they'll support Obama if they respect what Hillary stands for at all. Today is about national defense, I believe. And Bill Clinton and Joe Biden might be staged to launch the first really strong anti-McCain attacks.

That's another thing Obama did that doesn't follow the Kerry logic: he actually chose an attack dog for a running mate. Biden has no qualms about going after McCain--and he undoubtedly knows McCain's record better than McCain does (judging by how often McCain seems to forget how he voted on anything). An attack dog who is funny and charming while on the attack is a beautiful thing and I can't wait to see what he says tonight. Kerry chose John Edwards, who was known for only wanting to run a positive campaign and who seemed to lose all his charisma the moment he joined the ticket. I remember how I had looked forward the Edwards convention speech and was sorely disappointed because it bored me silly and didn't seem to say a damn thing--just like Kerry's speech the following night. I don't think we'll have that problem this year. With Biden tonight--and he'll be anything but boring--and Obama accepting his party's nomination in front of 80,000 people tomorrow night, we're bound to leave off on a high note, ready for the attack.

Who do you guys think McCain will choose for VP? The conventional wisdom is that it will be someone like Romney. Can't wait for the ads that will trigger...

[maggiethecat]

Shmeep, I don't know if this karma is for your thoughtful and most excellent posts or for your new avatar, but here it is.

Where in the world did you find that utterly insane picture of McBush? He looks like he's about to blow an aneurysm! So yeah, karma my dear.

[mlm828]

What's going on here? Doesn't anyone have any opinions on the events of the last couple of days?

I'll start.

Barak Obama's speech was an absolute masterpiece, the best political speech I've heard in, well, in a long time. It had just the right mix of street fighter and inspirational leader. I'm beginning to think the campaign should change its slogan to one word: "Enough!"

The Clintons both came through -- big time. I can only imagine how difficult it must have been for Hillary to give that speech, but she carried it off like the pro she is. Even though I supported Obama in the primaries, I was never anti-Hillary. And I still have mixed feelings about the lost opportunity to see a woman President in my lifetime.

Speaking of which, McCain's selection of Sarah Palin for his running mate is an insult to American women. Sarah Palin is no Hillary Clinton. McCain obviously thinks we're too stupid to tell the difference. I only hope this article is prophetic: "The VP Choice that Lost the Presidency for McCain."

More karma to shmeep for that avatar.